The era of civilizations: the birth in agony

1. Definition of civilization

There are different understandings of this term. One of them is the late stage in the development of society, which is characterized by a high level of material and spiritual culture. Civilization in this case is interpreted as the opposite of wildness and barbarism. However, there is a second understanding of civilization, which is based not on the phased principle, but on the principle of cultural-historical identity.

I will name the most famous names of scientists who have made a major contribution to the development of the theory of civilizations.

N. Ya. Danilevsky was the first to give an interpretation of civilizations not as a level of development, but as a stable type: in his work “Russia and Europe” (1869) he wrote about the differences between intercultural and historical types. The cultural-historical type according to Danilevsky is an integral system, determined by cultural, psychological and other factors, peculiar to a people or an aggregate of peoples who are close in spirit.

The name of the German philosopher Oswald Spengler, who wrote the book “The Decline of Europe”, is also widely known. He also considered culture as the main integrating factor of large communities. Spengler offers a view of world history as a series of cultures independent from each other, living the periods of origin, formation and dying. He contrasts civilization with culture. The phase of civilization, according to Spengler, means the dying culture. Spengler, like Danilevsky, was an opponent of Euro-centrism and a forerunner of a multipolar world.

The next big name in this row is Arnold Toynbee (1889-1975). The theory of civilizations Toynbee continues the tradition of Spengler and is another model of the theory of civilizations as cultural and historical types.

Arnold Toynbee is the author of twelve languid comparative history of civilizations. His work was called "The Comprehension of History." “The number of known civilizations,” Toynbee writes, “is small. We managed to identify only 21 civilizations, but it can be assumed that a much smaller number of completely independent civilizations will reveal about ten.

Karl-Gustav Jung, the founder of the theory of psychological types, did not ignore this question. He described Western civilization as extrovert, and Eastern - as introverted as opposed to it in mentality. Moreover, Jung's interest was directed towards the East.

And, finally, the closest to us is S. Huntington (1827 - 2008). This scientist gave the following definition: civilization is the maximum cultural community . Politics, economics, territory, origin in the definition of civilization are secondary.

As for Lev Gumilev, he investigated primarily ethnic groups, not civilizations. However, ethnic groups are grouped into superethnic groups, taking shape in the same civilizations.

Thus, all the major researchers of civilizations, cultures and ethnic groups believe that the factor of civilization occupies the top step of the communicative space - cultural and intellectual.

2. List of civilizations

Samuel Huntington was director of the Institute of Strategic Studies at Harvard University. His most cited article "The Clash of Civilizations" (The Clash of Civilizations) was published in 1993. In this article, he proclaimed the beginning of a major new phase of world development - the era of civilizations.

More specifically, the main position of Huntington is that the global world of the future will function not at the level of individual nation-states, but in a larger format - as a system of civilizations.

In this report I will show what is the socionic meaning of the coming epoch, which Huntington spoke as a herald of.

First of all, we are interested in the question: how many modern civilizations exist and what kind of civilizations are they? And Huntington has an answer to this question: "Identity at the level of civilization will become increasingly important, and the face of the world will be largely shaped during the interaction of seven or eight major civilizations."

Here is a list of eight modern civilizations according to Huntington:

• western
• Confucian,
• japanese
• Islamic,
• Hindu,
• Orthodox,
• latin american and maybe
• African civilization.

3. Globalization

In this regard, it is impossible not to mention the widespread term "globalization". What is it? - The current globalization is nothing more than westernization, that is, the spread of Western culture to the rest of the world. Some researchers have decided that the unification of life in the Western style is the "bright" future of all countries. The end of the story is about to come, for example, Francis Fukuyama counted. In his book The End of History and the Last Man (1992), he proclaimed that the spread of liberal democracies throughout the world may indicate the end point of the sociocultural evolution of humanity. However, now everyone understands that it is not.

Globalization, of course, continues to introduce American fast food and Hollywood products to the countries of the former USSR, in the Arab East and Southeast Asia. In these countries, locals, especially young people, quickly accept such things as hamburgers and Coca-Cola instead of their traditional dishes and drinks. However, the world is increasingly opposed to globalization. The anti-globalization movement is fighting to stop the expansion of Western, in particular, American values.

The most active resistance is observed from the Islamic world. As the first rumbles of thunder across Western Europe, a wave of demands for the authorities to revive the wearing of the hijab by women as a symbol of Islamic values ​​swept. Further more. Literally in front of the whole world, the Salafists and Muslim brothers overthrew the pro-Western or trying to negotiate with the West (like Gaddafi) regimes. American journalists have called this chain of revolutions "the Arab spring."

4. Map of civilizations

The names of civilizations often appear geographical designations. Let's make sure that the geographical boundaries do not coincide with civilizational. Where, for example, lies the border of Europe as a civilization?

The geography of civilizations will be found in the same Samuel Huntington. He directly indicates exactly where the “line of the great historical section” lies. This line was defined during the division of the Roman Empire into the Eastern and Western in the fourth century, as well as the creation of the Holy Roman Empire in the tenth century.

“The border was located about the same place where it is now, for five centuries. Beginning in the north, it goes along the present borders of Russia with Finland and the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania); in Western Belarus, in Ukraine, separating the Uniate west from the Orthodox East; through Romania, between Transylvania, inhabited by Catholic Hungarians, and the rest of the country, then along the former Yugoslavia, along the border separating Slovenia and Croatia from the rest of the republics. In the Balkans, this line coincides with the historical border between the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires. This is the cultural frontier of Europe ... ”

Thus, Europe ends where the territory of Western Christianity ends and Islam and Orthodoxy begin.

5. Functional roles of civilizations

What is the role of these civilizations in the global division of labor? And what socionic functions correspond to the mentioned civilizations in the maximum socion? On this subject, you can argue. I will state my point of view.

1. The Euro-Atlantic (Western) civilization, as the most organized, technological, and dynamic, represents the “P” function ,
2. Confucian civilization as the most disciplined, clear and respecting the hierarchy - «of L» ,
3. Islamic civilization with its excitability and tendency to war against the infidels - “F” ,
4. Eurasian (Orthodox) with its search for a special path - “I” ,
5. Hindu and Buddhist with their samopogruzhonnostyu and wisdom expressed in the world socion function "T" ,
6. Latin American with its fiery rhythms and expression is the carrier of the "E"function ,
7. the Pacific (including the Japanese) civilization with its devotion to the group expresses the “R” function , and
8. the share of the weakest in the list, but the most natural African (pagan) civilizations, which Huntington wrote as possible, we have to function «the S» .

Civilization of power sensor

A little more about why the Eurasian civilization, to which we actually belong, takes on the role of the intuition of possibilities. The reason for this is the tendency of our culture to fill the lack of material and monetary resources with an abundance of intellectual and inventive resources. Eurasians manage to do something unique, but they cannot deliver it qualitatively to the stream. The same Americans and Europeans show more organizational consistency, and we - much more ingenuity and resourcefulness. In addition, Eurasians, more than other super-ethnic groups, emphasize their uniqueness, originality and a special way. Stimulus uniqueness just corresponds to the intuition of opportunities.

6. Intercivilizational relations

In the coming period of history, the main are no longer international and interstate, but inter-civilization relations. In the short term, they will be tense and often conflicting. Huntington has rightly argued that the most significant conflicts of the future will unfold along the fault lines between civilizations. Why?

“Civilizations are dissimilar in their history, language, culture, traditions and, most importantly, religion. People of different civilizations have different views on the relationship between God and man, an individual and a group, a citizen and the state, parents and children, husband and wife, have different ideas about the relative importance of rights and duties, freedom and coercion, equality and hierarchy. These differences have evolved over the centuries. They will not disappear in the foreseeable future. They are more fundamental than the differences between political ideologies and political regimes. Of course, differences do not necessarily imply conflict, and conflict does not necessarily mean violence. However, over the centuries, the most protracted and bloody conflicts have been caused precisely by differences between civilizations. ”

At the same time, I am not at all going to say that the observed conflicts mean that civilizations are equally incompatible.

Asymmetrical, initially unequal relations are well traced. There is rivalry between Western and Islamic civilizations, but the energy priority, ultimately, is beyond the West. There is also a rivalry between the Western civilization and the Eurasian, and the energy priority (not informational!) Here is already on the side of Eurasia. Recall that the Eastern Roman Empire lasted much longer than the Western. Remember that the West has always been afraid and is now afraid of the Eastern barbarians.

There is also symmetry in relationships. Between the Western and Confucian civilizations is the redemption, and the relationship between the Western and the Japanese-Pacific is reminiscent of duality — deep interpenetration.

In spite of historical conflicts, dual interpenetration is quite possible between Western and Japanese civilizations.

Muslims and Orthodox despite conflicts always got along, as evidenced by the experience of the Russian Empire and the USSR. The famous researcher of the Eurasian civilization Lev Gumilev believed that the Orthodox and Muslim peoples are compatible. But let us remember that this attitude is not a duality, but a superego. The essence of the superego is to maintain a balance at a distance and the emergence of conflicts with close encounters.

A global war of civilizations can only be avoided when world leaders accept the multipolar world in their policies for granted and cooperate to maintain it. After the lapping occurs, civilizations will no longer conflict. Between them will establish a predictable relationship. This will be the era of the delta.

7. Transition from gamma to delta

The era of transition to the world of civilizations began with an attack on the twin towers in New York in September 2001. Before our eyes, it continues the so-called "Arab Spring". In the course of the Arab revolutions, Muslim civilization begins to loudly declare itself as a single whole.

The Eurasian civilization is being born, albeit without blood, but still in agony. Most of all, Ukraine is opposed to consolidation - a country with a torn (according to Huntington) identity. However, I will say about our country below.

Each epoch in the history of mankind has its own historical meaning and forms of existence. Socionics associates them with quadral values. So, at the core of the existence of the "gamma" lies the economy of profits and the nation-states, the basis of the "beta" is empire and religion. Cultural identity and self-sufficient economy underlies the “delta” - unification.

What is a self-sufficient economy? - This is, for example, the economy of the current European Union. It is estimated, for example, that Eurasia can also fine-tune a similar economic model. The volume of the future common market of the Eurasian Confederation, if it arises, of course, will be self-sufficient with the number of consumers of approximately 200 million people.

Well, what is the basis of "alpha"? - you ask. The answer is: kindred (family) bonds and anarchic device. The “alpha” of the state does not form; it is a network of loosely connected clans and tribes. Like current socionics.

More specifically about the state system in various squares. The state of "beta" - unitary, the state of "gamma" - the federation, the state of "delta" - the confederation. Alpha carries with it anarchy, anarchy. She has no state as such. It is important for us that the state structure of civilizations will most likely be a confederation.

According to the quaternion theory, a closed communicative space will be divided between four large players (small ones will be adjacent to one or another large player). The strongest and most persistent player will be the leader. This role is called dominant. The second is the most powerful - creative, which is the situational leader in special, non-standard situations. The third is normalizing. The fourth - the weakest and most unstable - is harmonizing.

All the roles together gradually grind in and form a system that is stably reproducing itself - quaternion . This system further constantly clones itself on a smaller scale.

Thus, the multipolar world of the future will be built on the basis of delta values. Structurally, this will mean that eight civilizations unite into four "worlds": first, the Western Euro-Atlantic world, second, the Eurasian world, third, the Confucian-Chinese world and, fourth, the world of Islam.

The Latin American civilization, apparently, will unite with the North American, that is, it will become a variant of Western civilization. The African, following the spread of Islam, will unite with the Muslim civilization. Pacific - from Chinese, etc. Although separate countries will remain in the form of enclaves. For example, Australia is unlikely to merge with the Pacific civilization, and will remain a fragment of Western civilization. At the same time, the balancing poles will be Western and Chinese, on the one hand, and Eurasian and Islamic, on the other.

8. Super-civilizations of the past and the future

We return to where we started. I want to draw a historical parallel. Let's compare how it was and how it became. The current time, which I characterize as a transition to a new delta, resembles a two thousand-year-old “delta” phase of antiquity: then the main civilizations finally formed within the ecumene (known world) and formed stable bonds with each other.

What was the state of ecumene in the first century of the new era?

The ancient band of civilizations stretched across Eurasia - from Gibraltar (Hercules pillars) in the extreme west across the Mediterranean, the Middle East towards the Far East - China. All major cities and all significant states of that era were located in this lane.

There were four great powers at the beginning of the new era: a huge Roman empire in the west, no less extensive Han empire in the east, and between them their civilizational antagonists - the Parthian kingdom in Iran and the nomadic Hun state in the steppes of Mongolia. All four powers were formed in the second half of the 3rd century BC. You can consider them as a pair of rivals: Rome - Parthia and Han - Hun.

So what's the story parallel? And the fact that we have approximately the same quadruple alignment by the beginning of the 21st century. And the main axis of opposition, as well as 2 thousand years ago, between the Euro-Atlantic civilization and China.

So, to summarize. The world of the future is the world of eight civilizations, united in four super-civilizations, organized confederatively with a single unifying culture.

The country of Ukraine in this brave new world has only four ways: 1) enter the Western super-civilization, 2) enter the Eurasian super-civilization, 3) continue to fluctuate as it is now, playing the role of a buffer zone, or 4) become a bridge between civilizations.

The latter is least likely. Ukraine with the choice of civilization continues to pull. She hesitates, as she has done throughout her history. It constantly rushed in the direction of Poland, then towards Turkey, then towards Russia. The trouble is that the upper layer (elite) pulls in one direction, and the lower layer (simple people) in another.

So far, the greatest chances are that Ukraine will maneuver between various military-political and economic blocs in 20 years, being still not a subject, as they say now, but an object of international politics. But in the world of civilizations, the value of a single state decreases. And the role of the advantageous transit position of Ukraine will steadily decline.

And what shines socionics? Socionic development of the types of large groups (integral types) wave can be in demand and useful in the era of the delta. This is a normalizing era, requiring balance. Socionics appeared in a timely manner, precisely when the order for stable relationships in complex systems began to take shape.

The trouble is that she could not maintain her unity. In the transitional era, loners die and only large associations have a chance to survive and pass on their achievements to their destination. As long as there is no quaternion with a leading center in the socionic movement, our chances will be minimal.